Angola's upstream reform push draws new investment and projects

Angola has steadied crude output at about 1.1 million barrels per day after years of decline, helped by offshore projects, fresh exploration and a wide upstream reform drive. A new book by NJ Ayuk says the country's next phase will hinge on policy stability, project execution and long-term capital commitments.

Why it matters: - Angola's oil sector remains central to national revenue, and the stabilization of output after more than a decade of decline gives the country a clearer platform for growth. - New reforms and project launches could help Angola slow production declines, unlock mature fields and attract more long-term investment. - The country's upstream outlook also matters to global oil companies that are weighing multi-billion-dollar commitments in Africa.

What happened: - Angola has stabilized crude production at about 1.1 million barrels per day after more than a decade of falling output. - The developments are examined in Crude Oil: Power, Turnaround and Transformation in Angola by NJ Ayuk, executive chairman of the African Energy Chamber. - The book focuses on upstream reforms, new projects and investment commitments across Angola's oil sector.

The details: - Since 2018, Angola has introduced reforms to improve the investment climate and support exploration and redevelopment of mature assets. - Those changes include the creation of ANPG and the Instituto Regulador dos Derivados do Petróleo, or IRDP. - Angola also adopted a multi-year licensing strategy, Risk Service Contracts and a restructuring of Sonangol. - The government added the Incremental Production Decree, Gas Monetization Law and Marginal Field Law. - National Development Plans released in 2018 and 2023 set broader economic goals, including reducing production decline and supporting diversification. - The TotalEnergies-operated Begonia and CLOV Phase 3 projects entered production in 2025. - The two offshore projects have a combined capacity of 60,000 barrels per day. - Azule Energy commissioned the Agogo FPSO in 2025 and started the Ndungu field in 2026 as part of the Agogo Integrated West Hub development. - The TotalEnergies-operated Kaminho development is targeted for first production in 2028. - TotalEnergies has outlined plans to invest $3 billion in Angola in the coming years. - Azule Energy has announced plans to invest $5 billion. - ExxonMobil previously indicated potential investment of up to $15 billion after exploration in the Namibe Basin, though initial drilling results were not commercially viable. - Onshore exploration has also picked up after the 2023 licensing round. - Corcel is carrying out seismic work at KON 16. - Oando plans to drill at KON 13. - Sonangol is leading exploration across KON 11, KON 12 and KON 15. - Etu Energias is running seismic campaigns. - Walcot Energy and ACREP have also expanded activity.

Between the lines: - Angola is pairing policy reform with visible project execution, which is the clearest sign that the upstream strategy is moving beyond planning. - The mix of offshore developments, onshore licensing and announced capital spending suggests companies still see room to invest despite earlier production losses. - The Namibe Basin example shows that not every exploration push will pay off commercially, even when the investment appetite is strong.

What's next: - Angola's upstream outlook now depends on whether current reforms continue to support exploration and whether planned projects reach startup on schedule. - The next milestones include Kaminho's targeted 2028 first oil and the conversion of announced investment plans into actual spending. - Further onshore drilling and seismic work could determine whether Angola can broaden its production base beyond offshore assets.

The bottom line: - Angola's oil industry is trying to turn a decade of decline into a longer-term recovery built on reform, new projects and sustained investment.